Americas

In the US, the earnings season gathers pace next week, with several major companies scheduled to report, including Meta, Tesla, Netflix, 3M, GM, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, IBM, P&G, Honeywell, American Express and GE Aerospace. Fed officials will enter the blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting on October 28, leaving no major policy appearances on the calendar. On the data front, the schedule is relatively light, but investors will closely watch the flash S&P Global PMIs for October, which are expected to show a slowdown in both manufacturing and services activity, although growth is likely to remain robust. Final figures for the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index are also due, alongside a series of housing indicators. The NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to edge lower in October, while building permits are forecast to have held steady at an annualised rate of 1.40 million in September. Housing starts are projected to have risen to 1.30 million, while pending home sales are expected to have flattened following a 0.3% increase in August. Other releases include the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada’s CPI is expected to have risen 0.2% month-on-month in September, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in August, while the annual core inflation rate is forecast to have remained steady at 2.6%. Producer prices and retail sales are also due. In Mexico and Brazil, investors will focus on mid-month inflation readings.

San Francisco, CA, US

Europe

Markets will focus on preliminary PMI readings next week for fresh insights into the region’s economic momentum in October. In the Euro Area, both manufacturing and services activity are expected to remain in expansion territory, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in September. Germany’s manufacturing sector is also forecast to sustain solid growth, while services activity is expected to reach an eight-month high. Economic sentiment indicators may paint a less upbeat picture. Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is expected to decline after five consecutive monthly increases, while sentiment across the Euro Area is also forecast to weaken. Flash consumer confidence for the Eurozone is due alongside economic releases from France, Turkey and several smaller European economies. In the UK, attention will centre on inflation, labour-market data and retail sales, as well as the CBI’s industrial trends orders and business optimism surveys and the GfK consumer confidence index. Consumer price inflation is forecast to rise to 3.4% year-on-year, its highest level in nine months, while core inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.7%, its highest since March. The labour market may show further signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate projected to climb to 5%, its highest level since March. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, are expected to ease to 3.8%, marking their weakest growth since 2020. Elsewhere, investors will monitor Euro Area car registrations, German producer prices and Switzerland’s trade balance. In Turkey, policymakers will announce their latest interest-rate decision after leaving rates unchanged at each of their five consecutive meetings through September. On the corporate front, ABB, EssilorLuxottica, SAP, Nestle, L’Oreal and Hermes are among the companies scheduled to report quarterly results next week.

London, UK

Asia Pacific

In China, a batch of key economic indicators will shed light on economic performance in September and the third quarter. GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 4.4% year-on-year in Q3, up from 4.3% in Q2. Industrial production is forecast to rise 5.4% in September, slightly above August’s 5.2%, while retail sales growth is expected to edge up to 0.5% from 0.4%. Fixed asset investment, meanwhile, is likely to remain in contraction. The People’s Bank of China is widely expected to leave its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. In Japan, attention will centre on September trade and inflation data, alongside preliminary manufacturing and services PMI readings for October. The surveys are expected to show an improvement in factory activity, while core inflation is forecast to accelerate to 2.1%, its highest level so far this year. The trade deficit is expected to narrow to JPY 250 billion. India and Australia will also publish preliminary manufacturing and services PMI readings for October. Elsewhere, New Zealand and Malaysia are due to release trade data, while inflation figures are expected from New Zealand, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore. Hong Kong and Taiwan will report unemployment data, while South Korea is set to publish its producer price index. On the monetary policy front, interest rate decisions are due from Bank Indonesia, the Bank of Korea and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Shanghai, China