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The CBI Business Optimism Indicator for the UK plunged 19 points to -32 in the third quarter of 2019, the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2016, due to ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Also, investment spending plans weakened again while optimism about export prospects for the year ahead worsened. Domestic and export orders declined at their fastest pace since the financial crisis and overall order books were below “normal” to the greatest extent since 2010. Manufacturers continued to grow their stocks of raw materials and finished goods, but at a slower pace than in the three months to April, when stocks were increased at the fastest pace on record. Still, output volumes in the next three months are expected to recover slightly.

The CBI Business Optimism Indicator for the UK increased to -13 in the second quarter of 2019 from -23 in the previous three-month period. It was the highest reading since the third quarter of 2018, mainly due to the Brexit delay. Sentiment regarding export prospects for the year ahead fell, but to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter. However, the proportion of firms citing political/economic conditions abroad as a factor likely to limit export orders in the next three months was at its highest since January 1983. The three months to April saw an unprecedented acceleration in the growth of stocks held by the manufacturing sector. Stocks of raw materials, work in progress, and finished goods all grew at their fastest (respective) paces on record. Looking ahead, though, manufacturers expect stocks to fall across the board in the next quarter.

The CBI Business Optimism indicator for the UK decreased to -23 in the first quarter of 2019 from -16 in the previous three-month period. It was the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2016 due to Brexit uncertainty. Sentiment regarding export prospects dropped at the fastest pace since the financial crisis, as manufacturers’ concerns that political and economic conditions abroad were likely to limit their future ability to obtain export orders were at their highest level since the immediate aftermath of the EU Referendum. Investment intentions for the coming year remained notably below their long-term averages, with spending on buildings, plant & machinery, training and innovation all expected to be lower in the year ahead.