Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Currency 97.07 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 99.06
Stock Market 24628.17 26407 26103 25804 25507 24354
Government Bond 10Y 2.91 3.1 3.15 3.21 3.26 3.47
Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.7 1.7
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls 155.00 165 193 182 179 170
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 3.5
Balance of Trade -55488.00 -53000 -52000 -44000 -56000 -59000
Current Account -101460.00 -102000 -109000 -103000 -101000 -125000
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6
Business Confidence 59.30 56 53 55 57 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.30 55.2 52.1 52.8 53.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI 60.70 54.6 54 54.2 56 52
Services PMI 54.70 54.5 53.1 54 55.3 54.8
Consumer Confidence 97.50 97.5 95 96 97 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Building Permits 1263.00 1230 1320 1246 1241 1315
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00 37 37 37 37 35
GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.7 1.7
GDP 19390.60 19800 20220 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 18671.65 18752 18782 19030 19176 19548
Gross National Product 18928.22 17976 17991 19292 19273 18738
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3333.62 3302 3353 3415 3410 3442
GDP per capita 53128.54 53500 54100 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45 55220 56900 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture 216.90 156 154 154 154 163
GDP From Construction 641.40 680 684 686 685 708
GDP From Manufacturing 2125.80 2041 2050 2056 2054 2128
GDP From Mining 429.80 399 402 403 403 416
GDP From Public Administration 2175.50 2147 2136 2142 2140 2238
GDP From Services 12700.80 12072 12080 12116 12104 12584
GDP From Transport 542.40 492 498 499 499 513
GDP From Utilities 284.30 292 286 286 286 304
Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls 155.00 165 193 182 179 170
Government Payrolls -6.00 12 1 15 6.87 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 161.00 160 188 178 166 161
Manufacturing Payrolls 27.00 10 12 1 6 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 231.00 210 215 220 230 240
Continuing Jobless Claims 1631.00 1600 1626 1610 1630 1700
ADP Employment Change 179.00 160 220 219 219 150
Employed Persons 156795.00 155964 156189 156389 156566 154000
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.28 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.77 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1
Job Vacancies 7070.00 5450 5900 6732 6300 5200
Job Offers 7079.00 5818 6300 6700 6600 5800
Challenger Job Cuts 53073.00 33300 55080 36000 42000 31000
Wages 22.95 23.25 23.65 24.05 24.55 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.82 21.65 21.9 21.45 21.75 22.4
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.80 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6
Population 325.72 327 328 329 330 332
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 1960.00 2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4520.00 4500 4500 4550 4550 4550
Living Wage Family 2380.00 2300 2380 2380 2380 2380
Part Time Employment 27039.00 27002 26990 26700 26800 2750
Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 252.88 254 255 257 258 266
Core Consumer Prices 259.48 260 262 263 264 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator 110.65 116 116 117 113 124
Producer Prices 117.30 120 121 120 120 130
Producer Prices Change 2.50 3 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2
Food Inflation 1.40 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1
CPI Housing Utilities 260.47 260 262 265 266 273
CPI Transportation 209.92 208 213 220 218 218
Inflation Expectations 2.97 2.9 3.1 3.1 3 3.2
Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 3.5
Interbank Rate 2.78 2.62 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.62
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4102109.00 4358306 4352601 4350218 4036945 4200000
Private Debt to GDP 202.80 198 195 195 205 191
Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Balance of Trade -55488.00 -53000 -52000 -44000 -56000 -59000
Current Account -101460.00 -102000 -109000 -103000 -101000 -125000
Current Account to GDP -2.40 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
Imports 266534.00 260000 259000 257000 269000 259000
Exports 211046.00 215000 207000 213000 213000 206000
Terms of Trade 106.98 99.55 99.45 99.65 99.74 92.43
Net Long Term Tic Flows 30808.00 57003 50201 49156 49370 49404
Crude Oil Production 11475.00 12000 12500 12730 12800 12500
Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -100000.00 -33824 -45667 -58601 -62101 -62490
Government Spending 3192.17 3231 3231 3261 3284 3368
Government Spending To GDP 37.70 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7 37.7
Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00 37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Business Confidence 59.30 56 53 55 57 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.30 55.2 52.1 52.8 53.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI 60.70 54.6 54 54.2 56 52
Services PMI 54.70 54.5 53.1 54 55.3 54.8
Composite Pmi 54.70 54.3 55.2 55.4 54.2 55.1
Industrial Production 4.10 3 2.9 3 2.6 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.70 2.1 1.8 2.38 2.31 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.40 78.3 78.5 78.6 78.82 78
Durable Goods Orders -4.40 2.5 -1.5 2.2 1.5 2.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.20 2 -0.8 1.8 1.2 1.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.10 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.5 1
Factory Orders -2.10 1.5 -0.9 2.2 1.8 0.8
Business Inventories 0.30 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.68 0.2
Corporate Profits 2073.50 2093 2114 2131 2145 2266
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.80 105 107 105 102 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.90 21 25 9.41 10 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14.00 5 10 11 7 3
Ism New York Index 67.80 67 56 53.9 60 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 23.30 21 19 17 22 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 17.60 27.9 20.1 28.6 19.36 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 0.9 0.7 0.22 0.21 0.05
Chicago Pmi 66.40 59.1 61 58 56 56
Total Vehicle Sales 17.49 17.4 16.9 17 18 17.3
Car Production 2.64 2.97 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.54
Crude Oil Stocks Change -1.21 -2 2.5 4.5 3.8 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change 2087.00 1000 2200 -1600 -1200 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change -63.00 -180 -55 75 55 -200
API Crude Oil Stock Change -10.18 6.2 4.8 -3.2 5.2 2
Mining Production 13.10 11 9 11 13.88 4
Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.50 97.5 95 96 97 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.60 4 4.2 4 5.2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.4
Consumer Spending 12957.22 13075 13041 13202 13319 13630
Personal Spending 0.60 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.35 0.5
Personal Income 0.50 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3
Personal Savings 6.20 6.6 6.7 6.8 7 5.2
Consumer Credit 25.38 15.1 13 14 10.5 8
Bank Lending Rate 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.5 5.75 6.25
Economic Optimism Index 52.60 52.3 52 51.3 53.9 50
Redbook Index 6.60 5.8 5.2 4.8 4 4
Chain Store Sales 3812.00 9100 4200 4000 4050 9200
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.73 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.64
Households Debt To GDP 77.30 77.5 78 78 78 79
Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2020
Building Permits 1263.00 1230 1320 1246 1241 1315
Housing Starts 1228.00 1330 1300 1218 1216 1280
New Home Sales 544.00 600 615 635 595 590
Pending Home Sales -6.70 0.1 1.1 1.3 -5.31 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5220.00 5600 5500 5250 5251 5000
Construction Spending -0.10 1 0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.4
Housing Index 0.20 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 60.00 68 66 65.3 65 53
Mortgage Rate 4.96 5.17 5.17 5.42 5.67 6.5
Mortgage Applications 1.60 1.2 3.4 -0.8 3.5 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index 213.76 213 215 218 221 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.40 64.5 64.6 65 64.8 64.5


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