Americas

The US economic calendar will be relatively light next week, with investors continuing to monitor US-Iran peace negotiations while the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June 16–17 meeting will be scrutinized for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at that meeting but signaled growing support for further rate hikes later this year amid persistent inflationary pressures. Since then, data have pointed to a cooling labor market, while Chair Kevin Warsh noted that lower crude oil prices had helped ease inflation expectations but reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability. Among the week's key releases, the ISM Services PMI is expected to show that activity in the services sector remained resilient despite moderating growth. Existing home sales are forecast to rise to 4.20 million, the highest level this year. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit is projected to widen sharply to $78.8 billion, the largest since March 2025, as imports increase and exports decline. Other releases include the final S&P Global Services PMI, consumer inflation expectations, wholesale inventories, and consumer credit. Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada will publish employment, Ivey PMI, and foreign trade data, alongside the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey and Survey of Consumer Expectations. Mexico will release inflation figures, while Brazil is scheduled to publish inflation, retail sales, and trade balance data.

Eccles Building, Washington DC

Europe

In Europe, the European Central Bank will release the accounts of its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday. At its June meeting, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate increase since 2023 and bringing the key deposit rate to 2.25%. On the economic front, Euro Area retail sales are expected to rebound. In Germany, industrial production is forecast to rise for a second consecutive month, while factory orders are expected to rebound. Meanwhile, the country's trade surplus is projected to narrow for a fourth straight month. In France, the trade deficit is expected to narrow, while in Italy, industrial production is forecast to increase for a fourth consecutive month. In the United Kingdom, the economic calendar will be relatively light. The Halifax House Price Index is expected to post its first monthly increase after three consecutive declines, pushing the annual growth rate back into positive territory. Meanwhile, the RICS House Price Balance is expected to remain negative but decline at a slower pace, suggesting further signs of stabilization. The Bank of England will also publish its Financial Stability Report on Tuesday. Elsewhere, in Switzerland, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0% for a third consecutive month, while consumer sentiment is forecast to improve, although it is likely to remain deeply negative. In Russia, inflation is projected to accelerate to 6.0%, its highest level in five months. In Poland, the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged following lower-than-expected inflation data for June.

Frankfurt, Germany